Monday 13 August 2007

Pic of the day: It takes two to duel.

Imaginary 2013

We continue a series of imaginary journal entries, each set one year further into the unknown future. Obviously this is mere fantasy, but I guess it says something about the way I think. Not that you don't know already if you've read me for all those years, I guess.

Fiction begins here:

13. August 2013: Aftermath

It seems World War III has been averted for now, thank the Light. Unfortunately, China won by default. It now has Taiwan, and the world is poorer for it. The USA is humiliated, its economy further thrown into chaos with the complete pesofication of the dollar, but at least its inhabitants are still alive and its cities not smoking craters. And the rest of the world has been spared. We may fight again another day, and hopefully with better tools.

It must be around ten years that I have warned that the Chinese might follow this exact course: Prepare for invasion of Taiwan by dumping their enormous reserves of US bonds. I had expected it to happen much earlier, in 2009, after the end of the Bush years. As we know by now, certain events happened that made the difference between Bush and his successor less important in this regard. The process was also slower than I had expected, but the humiliation of America is now complete. Their allies know that their promises are worthless. Their trading partners only take payment in their own currencies. The Creditor Alliance has forced USA to accede to treaties they considered themselves above in the past, like the Climate Treaty and the Complete Nuclear Test Ban, and even the irrational and dangerous GM Food Ban. Words cannot tell how stupid the GM Food Ban is, and yet the EU got the Creditor Alliance to push it through.

The big question all the time was whether the USA would blink. There were plenty of Americans who were in favor of going out with a bang and taking the world with them, as crazy as it sounds. Of course, this was only because they did not really believe it could happen. They are God's own country, after all, and God would not let mankind die without mentioning it in the Bible. I read a goodly number of normally sane people who insisted that if worst came to worst, Jesus would come down from Heaven and stop the missiles. Kind of like Dr Manhattan in Watchmen, perhaps? "Jesus - America's Secret Weapon!" I don't think it is quite that simple. But perhaps Jesus already did step in and save us, just not the American way.

I think during the Bush era at least, the Americans would have gone that far. They still were that proud. "No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise." But these last years have seen their pride fizzle. It did not go out with a bang, it just … deflated.

Americans never could make sense of Jesus words, that "you cannot serve God and Money". To them, there was no difference. Money was the proof that God was with you. An individual could temporarily suffer poverty despite his faith, perhaps, just briefly. But not in the long run, and certainly not a whole nation. The wealth of the USA was the one sure proof that God was with them. For this reason, you will find that they simply could not believe that other nations had a higher standard of living. They simply did not know it, and when some of them were confronted with it, they would write off those countries as special cases. Norway had oil. Luxembourg was not really a nation but a city. Switzerland was hoarding other people's money. But as country after country slid past them, it became harder and harder to come up with excuses. And harder to maintain that they were chosen by God to keep order on his favorite planet, I suppose.

In the beginning, the USA had profited from the sliding value of its currency. Imports became more expensive, making it easier for American companies to compete inside America. And exports became cheaper, making it easier to compete abroad. Even tourists flocked to America, at least those pale enough to not be harassed at the airports. But too much of a good thing is a bad thing. As China started dumping its US bonds, American debt gradually became next to worthless. American importers found it increasingly difficult to get credit, or even to pay in dollars. There never really was a chance to stand up to China. The USA was presented with a "generous offer" of continued Chinese credit if they would "respect the sovereignty" of the People's Republic. That is to say, between the lines of course, the right of China to do what it wanted with its "rogue province". The rest is history.

America may be the laughing stock of the world today, but how many of us would have acted differently? How many would consider political differences in some piddling little island on the opposite side of the globe more important than having fuel for our own cars (and stealth bombers)? I don't see my native Norway lifting a finger to help Taiwan, nor the mighty European Union, which has a larger economy and a larger population than the USA ever had. No, America's sin was to pledge their help to an ally back when everyone took for granted that they could give it. This is not a time to point and laugh. It is a dark and somber time, a time for reflection. What have we done to ensure our own freedom and that of our friends? Where others went wrong, did we go right? There will be new crises, there or elsewhere. Are we prepared? I fear not.