Saturday 14 April 2007

Pic of the day: A car is a natural part of any middle-class family these days ... even a simulated one such as here in the game Sims 2. Many have two. And don't get me started on all the lorries, trains and ships needed to freight all our cool stuff back and forth all over the globe.

Near future transport

Do you think gas is expensive? If so, I wonder what you will think in 10 years time, when 300 million Chinese have their own car. OK, so that is just a guess. It could take longer if the USA really crumbles and the other economies are unable to adjust and pick up the slack. But the fact is that huge nations such as China, India and Brazil are now so far developed that their home markets alone can sustain growth unless they panic. If they trade with each other, so much the better. Add in some other well-functioning developing countries, and some demand from Europe and Japan, and it seems unlikely that an American collapse can prevent further growth, only postpone it.

I probably don't have to mention that 300 million is roughly the number of inhabitants in the USA, babies included. China and India each has more than a billion people. Even if only a quarter of them ever get their own car (a very conservative estimate by American and even European standards) that would be a lot of gas. I really doubt people will afford to use fuel-quality oil for power plants at the time, so I won't mention the obvious need for every home in India to have its own electric air conditioner. Same for Brazil, of course, but it will likely only have 200 billion inhabitants or barely even that in 2017.

I trust you see the picture by now. For so many years, we did not really expect developing nations to develop. And perhaps they will stop, if the Left manages to reverse globalization. That doesn't seem very likely, though. But once a nation has begun to develop a viable middle class, it is hard to stop growth. Once Europe had developed this economic backbone, even its repeated wars did not throw it all the way back to the Middle Ages. Unless you suggest that Europe is somehow inherently far superior to other continents, I think the good old days are gone forever. The days when the colonies just quietly supplied us with raw materials and didn't use them themselves.

In many cases, raw materials can be substituted for one another if one becomes too expensive. We may see more use of ceramics in cars, for instance. But fuel is another matter. The existing cars and the cars being built now and in the near future all run on gas. Diluting it with alcohol is not a real solution. With today's technology, the production of alcohol requires approximately as much diesel as you save. Add a growing world population that wants to eat more, and especially more meat (one pound of meat takes ten pounds of grain to make). The demand for food will simply crowd out alcohol production from the arable land... when we come right down to it, people would rather eat than drive.

There is the perennial dream of the electric car, of course. When I was young, some 30 years ago, a factory for electric cars was built in my home province of Sogn & Fjordane, Norway. I don't remember if they actually built any cars for commercial sale before they gave up, but the village where the factory was located grew to a town and eventually the de facto capital of our sparsely populated province, so it wasn't all in vain. 25 years later, Norwegians started building electric cars again. (Because of our abundant hydropower, there is a natural market here.) This time, hundreds of the cars were made. I have even seen one myself. But the factory was bought up by Ford, which then promptly closed it down. It was just barely they were kept from dismantling the finished cars that were in stock.

I think the lesson is that electric cars are not going to be a big part of our immediate future. Fifty years from now, sure. Ten years? Only a symbolic presence. So you'll probably have to fight with a billion other drivers over the precious drops of gas.

Besides, how were you planning to make electricity anyway? If you're thinking nuclear power plants, you better start building them now. In fact, there are some being started, but in most of the world people are still afraid of them. Even those who don't have anything against nuclear power in principle, still don't want them anywhere nearby. There is finally some production of solar energy cells, but this is based on research from the 1980es, when we spent twice as much on this kind of research. That's right, not half but twice as much as today. This does not bode too well for the near future. For as of today, renewable energy is still not commercially viable without massive government subsidies. Which means that you still pay for it, only through taxes rather than the utility bill. For renewable energy to become competitive, the price of using fossil fuels would have to go way up. Which it probably will for oil, but not for coal. There is enough coal to cover our civilization's energy needs for centuries yet.

Unfortunately, if we actually burn that much coal for centuries, the greenhouse effect will wipe entire nations off the map. But since this will happen well after the current crop of politicians are retired, it seems likely that this is what will happen. And you'll still have to pay an arm and a leg for your gas. Then again, risking arms and legs is something we always do when driving.

Anyway, I don't expect the higher cost of transportation to change behavior except for the very poorest. European countries have had varying degrees of "carbon tax" on fuel for years, and people drive the way they used to. Moderate taxes on air flights have not held back the growth in that sector, either. As long as the cost is not shocking and extreme, people will groan and bear it. As will you, no doubt. But perhaps you'll regret not making that travel while it was still ridiculously cheap, back in 2007...