Saturday 27 September 2008

Pic of the day: Sometimes that's actually true, but only if they listen.

Told you so

Last year on this day, I set forth the following gem: "Not this time!" say the economists to Dagens Næringsliv (Daily Business, the leading Norwegian business newspaper). This time, even if America should take a nosedive, there is China and India and the other emerging markets. They will grow that much faster when they don't have to compete with America for raw materials, most notably oil. Norway is already trading more and more with these, so we will be fine. The oil price in particular will stay high, just not quite as extreme as now. And the EU, which is on our doorstep, will not go down with the US. It has its own inner market now, after all, which should give it the necessary stability to plough on at its own steady rate. We can trade with them - we are part of the Common Economic Area after all - and we don't need America.
Yeah, right. If I'm still around in two year's time, ask me.

OK, it's only one year later, not two. And the oil price is still around $80 a barrel, not too bad by historical measures... but it is a far cry from the $200 we heard predicted it would be around now, or even the $140 it did reach. More importantly, the oil price AND the European economies seem to be headed for the basement. Several European nations are worse off than the USA, months at most after sneering at the stupid free-market believers over there, who were about to get their just desserts.

I mildly enjoy being able to say "Told you so!" - but not enough that I'd like to see western civilization crumble. Let's hope this helps people sober up a bit before it is too late.