Sunday 24 October 2004

Pic of the day: Untergang des Abendlandes ... another screenshot from Boomtown, City of Heroes. Hopefully things won't get quite that bad, but it may feel like it.

Poor Kerry

Yes, I am talking about John Kerry, the man who tries to replace George W. Bush as President of the USA. So obviously I am not talking about economic poverty. What I mean is, I am glad I am not in his shoes now. Because no matter what happens in the upcoming election, he is likely to regret ever coming that far.

First, there is still the quite real possibility that most of the votes will go to Bush. This is what it has looked like for most of the autumn, although I hear now that it is 50-50 again or possibly a small lead for Kerry. But depending on what happens next, and the weather in the various states, Bush may still win by a majority. In which case Kerry will fade into obscurity. Oh, he still has his rich wife and some of his friends, but people won't ask him for advice on things much greater than gardening.

Another equally likely outcome is that he may win the most votes but lose the election. In support of this is the fact that international election observers are being kept away from interesting places, something that normally only happens in proforma democracies such as Zimbabwe. No matter the outcome of this election, this fact is going down in the history books, and will merit notice as long as people still read English in this world. Doubly so if Bush wins by a minority vote again. This is possibly the best outcome for Kerry though, as he will no doubt be invited to speak whenever dubious things get unearthed about the Bush government, and can safely claim that things would have been much better if he had won.

***

The worst that could happen to Kerry, however, is winning. Because it is likely to make him the most hated President in US history.

I have told y'all for some years now that the American economy is not balanced. It was not balanced under Clinton, but the government ran a surplus at least even if the private households sank deeper into debt. Now, states and federation and citizens alike are mired in the quicksand and sinking fast. And while military expenditure does create employment, it does not actually produce useful goods and services for the populace, so people don't get richer from them. It diverts resources from civilian production, and actually makes the country poorer. This is not obvious at first, but gets more and more pronounced as time passes. Since less of the useful goods and services are provided, their price will start to rise.

At the same time, the weaker dollar (as I have covered in earlier columns) will cause import prices to rise. The good thing about this is that the risk of deflation is definitely over. The bad thing is that the central bank will now be obliged to raise interest rates to stop inflation. Higher interest rates means it will no longer be feasible to buy expensive homes, thus it will no longer be possible to sell your homes at a high price, thus the paper value of your home goes down, thus you can no longer borrow against the value of your home, and will have to pay down some of what you have already borrowed until the debt is again sufficiently lower than the official value of the property. All this means people will finally have to stop spending more than they earn. This means the jobs catering to this extra spending will disappear. This means people will blame the President, as they usually do when things don't go their way.

Kerry promised millions of new jobs. If he does a half decent or better job, he will preside over the largest loss of jobs since the Great Depression. Only through reckless spending, lying and cheating can he keep the bubble from bursting – just like Bush has done. In that case, may Allah have mercy on whoever takes office 4 years from now, if the planet is still around by then. (There is still the possibility that the Large Hadron Collider at CERN will produce a black hole by 2007 and the world will be sucked into it. But more likely, only the American economy will be a black hole by then, and Kerry will be around to fall screaming into it.)

***

To add horror to misery, there is no honorable way for the USA to pull out of Iraq. The country is in a de-facto civil war which shows no sign of abating. The Kurdish areas in the North have come to enjoy a near independence, which they are unlikely to let go of come hell or high water. The two main religious sects in the rest of the country are united only by their hatred for the USA, and are ready to slaughter each other once the invaders are gone. In fact, not all of them can bear the waiting, so the occasional murder is already happening. Neighboring Iran is gently fanning the flames. "Volunteers" from various Arab nations are trickling across the borders.

I suppose Kerry could just say: "Look, we're sorry that cretin ordered an invasion. Here's your country back, have fun!" and then watch as the various factions butcher each other and make the place a really large training camp for Holy Warriors while burning the oil fields. That's not what he has said he will do, and it also leaves the distinct impression that the Infidels have fled with their tail between their legs and the glorious Islamic revolution is winning on all fronts. Today Iraq, tomorrow the world! One planet under Allah!

I won't even get into the fact that Iran is working its tail off to put together nuclear weapons sometime during the next four years. And unlike Iraq, Iran actually did support Taliban and thereby indirectly (?) al-Qaida*. For all I know, the whole sorry invasion may be because Bush, who got quite poor grades in high school, may have confused the two countries. I always thought they ought to keep the name Persia, so people could easily tell who was who. Oh well, a bit late now. But for Kerry, should he win the election, the fun has barely begun.

*) This is factually wrong, although I believed it at the time I wrote it. Iran may have done some dubious things, but support Taliban is the opposite of what they did. They were close to war with them at some points. Sorry. (Edited 2006)