Sunday 20 February 2005

Pic of the day: "Our golden age has ended." Actually he isn't saying that, I just loved those reactions. Screenshot from the anime Hikaru no Go.

USA's golden age ends

In the strategy game Civilization III and its expansions, there is the concept of "Golden Ages". Each civilization (which is really more like a nation) may at one time in their history experience such a Golden Age. (Either by building a Wonder of the World that fits their basic traits, or by winning a military victory using their unique military unit.) The Golden Age lasts for 20 turns, and gives greatly improved trade and production in all cities. The latest added Wonder of the World, the Internet, is able to give a Golden Age to any civilization that invents it, no matter what their type, provided they haven't had a Golden Age before.

During the Golden Age, the civilization has no military or cultural bonus in itself. It all depends on how they choose to use the extra production and trade. They may churn out military units, or build improvements in all their cities, or just spend it all on luxuries to keep the citizens happy. Actually that may not be the worst idea. Because after 20 turns, there comes this message on the screen: "Our Golden Age has ended, so say our analysts." And if you have built lots of military units, you may suddenly have a problem paying for them all. You probably have a decent amount of money lying around, but it drains quickly. Likewise for city improvements, except the commercial ones (marketplaces, banks and stock exchanges), which tend to more than finance themselves. Golden Age is a good time to get ahead, build up your cities or your military, but it also carries the danger that you get used to it and set your expenses accordingly.

***

My readers are a bright bunch, you already know what I'm hinting at here. Of course, real life is not Civilization III. But the feature was not introduced just to spice up gameplay. History shows that various nations had their Golden Ages, and some never quite recovered from them. The Hittites, for instance, built an empire when they invented iron weapons while their neighbors were still in the Bronze Age. Then everyone and their grandma got iron, and the Hittites were wiped from history. The Bible reckons the reign of Solomon as the Golden Age of Israel, and almost immediately afterwards the nation was broken in two and fell into decline. With greatness comes the danger of hubris or at least complacency.

It looks to me as if the United States of America has been through such a golden age in my lifetime. Its culture has dominated the world, its economy has been the greatest and its military unchallenged. As the good old voice actor from Civilization II so memorably used to say: "We stand astride the world like a colossus, noble Leader!" Yeah, those were the days. But then come the pesky analysts, and just when things look their very best, there is the message: "Our golden age has ended."

Shredded of all diplomacy, it seems that the American economy is running into rough waters because the nation has failed to tap the potential of its underclass by supplying high-quality public education. The nation has a lot of highly qualified scientists, but it also has a lot of people who can barely read and write. As we move further into the information age, the cost of ignorance rises. And changing the situation will take a generation. You cannot just start teaching people at college level if they cannot read.

There are other choices as well that will probably be regretted in the future. The lack of mass transit, for instance. Sure, people prefer to drive each their own car all over the place, but there's a lot of capital bound up and time wasted.

***

But despite a wrong turn here and there, the USA still had its golden age. It was certainly not due to some genetic quality of its people – the country is mostly populated with a mix of recent arrivals from many different ethnic groups, and their motives from coming varied from religious persecution at home to fleeing from the law after various criminal acts, with most people just coming in hope of land (in the past) or a well-paid job (more recently). A representative government and independent courts certainly set the country ahead of much of the world until recently, but even compared to most democratic countries the US had an edge. I believe this was because of its commitment to free trade.

(Do I still have to justify free trade to anyone? Just look at the map and see for yourself: The nations that have long embraced free trade are rich, such as the USA and Scandinavia; the nations that have long avoided free trade are poor, such as North Korea. The nations that have changed to free trade recently are growing rapidly, such as China; and the nations that have recently closed their doors are plunging down in poverty - right now I can only remember Zimbabwe, but it may still happen again.)

The US is still committed to free trade by and large. But then again, the Hittites still had their iron weapons and tools, too. The new thing is that everyone and their grandma also have them. China is now an amazingly open economy (although it is a closed society in some other respects). Eastern Europe, Latin America ... they're all catching up. Even India is reforming, with its one billion people. The time is slowly approaching when there is no longer need for the US as the spender of last resort.

It is not like the entire nation will just drop dead or fall into abject poverty. No, at first it just doesn't forge ahead as fast as it used to. The past is not changed, and that which is built is still standing. But the expenses will start to drag it down. If Civ3 is any hint, and I think it is in this case, having a big military is going to really hurt. There will need to be made choices. Choices between keeping up the accustomed standard of living, or the accustomed standard of military supremacy. It will be an interesting choice.

I probably have more friends in the USA than anywhere else. I don't feel a deep inner need to see them suffer. And even though things get gradually harsher, I think individuals can flourish if they are prepared. But if you believe that golden ages go on forever, then you will face a rude awakening. And sorry, but it will be deserved, for you have been warned.