Thursday 31 July 2003

Pic of the day: Random pretty screenshot from Civilization III. Sadly, I am not able to play it for long, due to repetitive strain injury. But it is highly recommended for politicians and economists alike.

Professors and Civilizations

It's all over the news. Well, the business news at least; it doesn't seem to make headlines in the tabloids quite on the level of the daily murders, rapes, suicides, fires and political mud-slinging. But two reasonably respectable professors have expressed doubts that the world economy will recover quite as easily as hitherto expected. They base this on the discovery that much of the economic growth so far has been fueled by the USA and UK importing much more than they export. And this, they maintain, is unlikely to continue forever.

Congratulations! These bright, highly educated, well paid and well connected men have discovered the glaringly obvious! As people around them are getting soaking wet, they lift their eyes and declare that those dark, looming clouds could very well cause some precipitation in the future. And since they use such an academic wording, people might just believe it. None too early, either. I've been hammering on this for so long that I can no longer remember when I began. But of course, I'm just some ex-programmer who likes to play computer games, so there is no need to turn your head and look at the clouds I point at. You'll need at the very least professors for that. Actually, it doesn't seem like they are making too big an impact either ...

The other day, the business papers were ringing with good news: The American economy is growing briskly, 2.4% last quarter rather than the expected 1.5%. In all fairness, the Norwegian newspaper Dagens Næringsliv commented that this was caused by the enormous growth in military expenditure. This from a government that had promised to cut public expenses.

But does it matter to investors whether you make bombs or bread, as long as there is a healthy profit margin? After all, it creates jobs, and the money finds its way around. Certainly the good times must be coming back, when the wheels of the economy are spinning faster? Obviously, these people haven't been playing enough Civilization.

***

In the strategy game Civilization by Sid Meier, you have three groups of resources: Food, trade and "shields". Shields represent resources such as wood, stone, ore ... raw materials, if you will. You can use these to build military units. But all units above a certain minimum require upkeep. And if you keep building military units, eventually you will spend so much on upkeep that you cannot build anything new, including new military units.

Alternatively, you could build "improvements" such as libraries, marketplaces, or factories. While you do this, the military suffers from a lack of new units. But in the long run, these improvements make you more productive. You gain technological advances, a stronger economy and more efficient production. Of course, none of this is of any help if the enemy has captured your cities in the meantime! So a balance needs to be struck.

In real life, the USA already has the world's strongest military, and its home borders are not contested. Shifting to military production at this point would be a sign of an impending war of conquest. That's not likely to improve its trade or its diplomacy. If I took over a Civilization scenario similar to this, I would instead strike a balance between economic infrastructure and spies. Lots and lots of spies, placed in my own cities for counter-intelligence, to capture incoming saboteurs.

Of course, it could be argued that the USA is already waging a war of conquest, and has recently acquired the oil fields of Iraq. But as any seasoned Civ player knows, you don't reap the same turn you sow. When you take over war-torn cities, especially from a technologically less advanced civilization, you have to spend a long time building up the infrastructure in the conquered cities, as well as the surrounding landscape, before they turn a surplus. And in the meantime, the citizens will be unhappy and break into riot unless placated with gifts or suppressed by a heavy military presence. Oh yes, it would certainly have been useful to play Civilization before you start wars. Remember I told y'all that removing Saddam Hussein was a good idea, but the USA could not afford to do it now? Evidently they thought otherwise. Now we shall have to wait and see who was right, George W Bush with the advice of Dick Cheney, or Magnus Itland with the advice of Sid Meier. ^_^