Saturday 18 December 2004

Pic of the day: Not to imply anything, but here's a screenshot from Dark Age of Camelot... (Actually, while Britain was in the Dark Ages, Constantinople carried the torch of Western civilization. Not that most people think of this today.)

Turkey and the EU

Despite the season, that's the country Turkey, where the Turks live. Well, not all Turks, but lots and lots of them. And not all people in Turkey are Turks either, some are for instance Kurds, which causes a lot of armed insurrection and such. For this reason and others, the country is pretty much a developing country still, not least compared to its wealthy neighbors to the west, the core members of the European Union. Which have now gracefully granted Turkey the right to negotiate for membership in that august assemblage. There is a condition however: Turkey must acknowledge the other member states. One of these happen to be Cyprus, which Turkey has traditionally considered a province of theirs. So, it's gonna rankle. But they'll almost certainly gonna swallow it.

It's not like there are a lot of other ways for Turkey to become a prosperous, peaceful nation. The back door is open (or rather, it's like the wall is missing) toward the Arabic world with its medieval interpretation of the Koran. There isn't much economic stimulus to get there. The country has a military cooperation with the USA, but after the end of the Cold War it no longer lies in a strategic location, except briefly when there was a need to invade Iraq. Turkey itself does not have the vast reserves of oil that some Middle-Eastern nations have, and that makes it even harder to catch America's attention.

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The EU does not REALLY want Turkey as a member. Turkey is disturbingly poor, lies mostly outside Europe, it is thoroughly Muslim (albeit not in the frothing "kill all infidels!" way of some other countries) and it is only test driving democracy while the military waits in the wings. If people don't vote for the right parties, the military will step in again, as they have done before. So we don't really know whether the common people want a European-style liberal democracy or whether they'd prefer to pull the girls out of school and dress them in black tents. But living so close to Europe, they probably have their eyes turned that way. Money has a magnetic effect on most people.

What European politicians and political experts know is this: Slam the door in Turkey's face, and they will turn to their other roots, notably Islam. The winds that are blowing over the Islamic world these days are not the gentle refinement of culture, to put it mildly. And you really don't want tens of millions of rolling-eyes wannabe suicide bombers on your doorstep. Better to open your door for still fairly moderate Muslims. Hopefully economic growth will make them forget the whole "clash of civilizations" thing. After all, the Christian nations were not exactly known for restraint back in the middle ages, but things have improved a lot since then. When you have a lot of stuff, war doesn't seem worth the risk anymore. (Well, not unless you are sure you'll win quickly and bloodlessly. And even then you may be wrong.)

It's not like Turkey is entirely unfamiliar with European civilization. The area was part of the Roman Empire for about 1500 years. In fact, the Roman Empire lasted a lot longer there than it did in the West. During the Crusades, Constantinople was still a Christian bastion. (The Crusades did not always help, either. The soldiers sometimes had rather vague ideas about property rights and such in the countries they passed through.)

Mainly it boils down to two things. One: Can a Muslim country really embrace personal freedom? (Islam means "submission" after all.) Two: Will the money transferred from the rich European countries really be an investment that gives a return, or will it be alms to the poor, eaten and forgotten? Europe cannot answer these questions. Turkey can. But it is still a long time off. Who knows what the world will look like, 15 years from now ... (If there even is a world and not just a man-made black hole.)