Wednesday 5 April 2000

Pic of the day: Why go to Mars, when you can read the March issue of Scientific American. I've had it a few days now, and there's presumably a new issue for sale in America by now. Anyway, the main topic of interest this month (for me) was the theme section about manned expeditions to Mars.

When I was a boy, it was obvious that people would go to Mars, probably ca 20 years after the first steps on the Moon. By the year 2000 there would still only be expeditions, but some of those would probably be engaged in setting up the foundations for the first colony. In a few years, people would be living under plexiglass bubbles. Eventually the atmosphere would be expanded by releasing gases that were trapped in the planet's crust, and perhaps comets would be diverted to supply water and gases. But terraforming the Red Planet would take centuries, so we would not be able to see that. We would only see the pioneer phase, the wave of scientists and engineers and adventurers that would begin it all. They would create a new culture, like the "new world" of America had done, only much more so. A vibrant culture of intellect and courage the like of which had never been seen. That much was sure.

It has not quite gone that far. A few cheap space probes, the latest two perhaps a little bit too cheap, since they did not work. It's a good idea to not mix metric and US measures, such as meters and feet. Strange things can happen if you don't know which is which. Stuff like that.

While some think that the recent setbacks show that Mars is too dangerous to send people, others insist that resident humans is the only way to overcome the challenges of a new planet. Humans are much more adaptable than robots and can fix problems on the spot. I happen to agree with this, but it is still dangerous and there is no way around it. Sailing to America wasn't always quite safe either the first times, not to mention a trip to Australia. At best you would be gone for months, at worst you would be gone. But public opinion has changed. In a time where even wars are fought in such a way that no western soldiers must die, it is hard to tell mothers and wives that there is a very real risk that the crew may sacrifice their lives for the sake of science. Never mind that they will be heroes and their names will be remembered for centuries, if not millenia.

Some people keep planning. Even though the wind has not been blowing in the direction of manned space flights recently, there are some who wait, and use their waiting time well. Several of these have got a chance to express themselves in Scientific American. One of them was Robert Zubrin, writing about the "Mars Direct" plan. He wants to send an unmanned lander first, which will start to convert local resources to fuel, water and oxygen. Then, two years later, the astronauts will arrive with only some proviant, getting their other supplies from these devices.

Zubrin? The name seemed familiar. And moments later it clicked. While my portable computer had been under repair (such as it was), I had again started playing Civ 2 on my old machine, and then my favorite scenario: Mars Now. The great thing about this scenario is that it offers a lot of terrain improvements, as you can change much of the planet from a stone desert to rich terraformed land. Anyway, this game features something called a "Zubrin device". No doubt they have taken the name from Robert Zubrin, though in the game the Zubrin device is a city improvement that delivers clean energy, and is only applicable in certain terrains.

The world is not large, huh? Or perhaps it is Zubrin who is not small. At least his visions are not. I think it is appropriate to quote a few lines from the end of his article:
" Someday millions of people will live on Mars. What language will they speak? What values and traditions will they cherish as they move from there to the solar system and beyond? When they look back on our time, will any of our other actions compare in imporance with what we do now to bring their society into being? Today we have the opportunity to be the parents, the founders, the shapers of a new branch of the human family. By so doing, we will put our stamp on the future. It is a privilege beyond reckoning. "

Despite his grand visions, Zubrin is not a wild-eyed science fiction writer resorting to magic-like nanotech or otherwise borrowing from future science. His proposal uses tried and tested technology, and could be started at any time if given the support of a developed nation or a sufficiently large group of private investors. You may want to learn more about this from the Mars Society.

Of course, if there had been a real chance that people would travel to Mars in the foreseeable future, there would be all kinds of consideration. There is no way we can live on Mars even for a day without seeding it with Earth bacteria. We are covered in them inside and out. This would render the question of Martian life somewhat moot, I'm afraid. Even if there still is life on Mars, it is unlikely that Earth and Mars life will coexist peacefully. If we're lucky, it's Martian life that goes extinct.

But right now, a journey to Mars is far away. It is still in the political game phase, and is likely to be until well after I leave this world in the more conventional way, hopefully old and sated with days. But for now, off to terraform the Red Planet on my computer. :)